Hidden Dispersion
SPX posted its best month since November 2020 as megacap tech delivered, with the jobs report and remaining AI-linked earnings now squarely in focus.
Impact Snapshot
JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday
Unemployment Claims - Thursday
Non-Farm Payrolls - Friday
Unemployment Rate - Friday
Key Earnings: PLTR 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑
Macro Viewpoint
The S&P 500 rose +0.9% on the week and finished April with its best monthly performance since Nov ’20 as megacap tech earnings were solid enough and provided evidence that the drivers of this AI cycle remain intact.
The busiest stretch of earnings season is now in the rearview, with the majority of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 2026 results.
The calendar thins out considerably from here, though Nvidia remains the marquee print to watch, expected to report on May 20. Consumer retail names will also stay in focus late in the season given ongoing sensitivity around the consumer backdrop and surging energy prices.
Prime Intelligence
Last week’s session was dominated by single-stock micro catalysts, with a wave of tech earnings driving significant return dispersion across the sector. Anecdotally, supply from hedge funds was picking up, suggesting the narrow, index-level rally was being faded at the institutional level.
Despite the SPX finishing higher, tech was once again doing the heavy lifting, a dynamic we flagged last week. 65% of constituents closed in the red.
Hedge funds unwound Info Tech exposure for a second straight week, with longs sold at a 1.5-to-1 ratio over short covers. The trailing two-week de-grossing hit -2.7z, the most aggressive in a decade outside the 2021 meme stock period. Mag7 names were net sold in 4 of the last 5 sessions, with long sales the dominant driver throughout.
Key Takeaways: Tech earnings carried the index higher last week. Behind the scenes, hedge funds were the most aggressive sellers of US Info Tech in a decade, net selling Mag7 in 4 of the last 5 sessions.
The Market Brief
📰 In today’s brief we cover last week’s vol dynamics and what the index level is masking. Positioning, flows, and what it means for the week ahead.
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