How we're preparing for FOMC this week
Hey team.
A volatile week is ahead of us with key economical releases and some heavyweight earnings.
We’ll recap the prior week and see what we’ll be looking moving forward.
Let’s jump in!
Impact Snapshot
Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday
Manufacturing PMI - Wednesday
JOLTS Job Openings - Wednesday
Federal Funds Rate - Wednesday
Unemployment Claims - Thursday
Non-Farm Employment Change - Friday
Unemployment Rate - Friday
ISM Services PMI - Friday
Earnings: AMZN 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑
Market Evaluation
This week, the S&P 500 index experienced a 2.7% increase, its first weekly gain in a month.
The surge was propelled by the technology and consumer discretionary sectors, driving a widespread recovery, buoyed by earnings surpassing expectations.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed prices increased more than expected in March, rising 2.8% year over year faster than March's 2.7% increase.
The hot inflation reading has decreased the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates anytime soon.
According to CME rate cut predictions, markets have given up on July rate cuts, and September's Fed meeting is only posting a 45% chance.
Next week the main focus will be the 2-day FOMC meeting on Tue-Wed which is coupled with several key economical reports and Friday’s Unemployment rate will shape a volatile month opening.
Ultimate TradingView Suite
Confidence in trading begins by stacking multiple confluences which will offer a high probability trading setup.
The scope of building the Ultimate TradingView Suite is combining both momentum-driven indicators along with key static levels such as the nTPOC in order to indicate where a high probability setup could take place.
A real use-case example seen above with comments on the overlapping confluences, gave a high probability setup with our flagship toolkit printing a bearish signal at the absolute top of the day.
Markets Breakdown
Key economical reports coupled with heavyweight earnings will shape a volatile week heading into the next month.
Monday will be the only non-economical report heavy day that the market will get prior to a series of catalyst that will likely send the market into an imbalance state.
Friday’s advance was another P-shaped profile with no reasonable excess at the highs. This is a sign of another short-covering day with a sloppy advance to the upside.
Market’s ability to continue building value above 5116 is a sign of strength for continuation.
If the market breaks and holds below this reference, we can see a pullback all the way towards 5089.
ES
Key references heading into the week ahead.
Upside Levels: 5154/5182/5193
Downside Levels: 5089/5064/5041
That’s all we got!
Like this post, share it with a friend.
We’ll see you again on the next one.
Oh, if you want access to our premium TradingView, NinjaTrader, or Sierra chart suite, go check them out on our website here.
Also, be sure to check out our one-time purchase products over on our Gumroad here that also include a FREE Trading Handbook!
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading carries a significant level of risk and may lead to substantial financial losses. The content provided in this newsletter is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a trade recommendation or financial advice. It is essential for readers to independently assess and make their own investment decisions, taking into consideration their personal financial situation and risk tolerance.