Make or Break
Hey team, the much-anticipated unemployment rate report is due tomorrow. This will be the definition of a “make-or-break” number for the market and will be closely watched. Let’s recap today’s session and see what’s next.
Impact Snapshot Tomorrow
Average Hourly Earnings - 8:30am
Non-Farm Employment Change - 8:30am
Unemployment Rate - 8:30am
Market Evaluation
Stocks declined ahead of the release of U.S. jobs data, which will play a crucial role in determining the extent of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
New labor market data released Thursday provided mixed signals about the U.S. economy's health, raising concerns over whether the Federal Reserve is falling behind in its rate-cut strategy.
Private payroll figures revealed the slowest growth since 2021, intensifying fears of a weakening labor market.
Currently, the odds favor a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed's September meeting, but a significantly disappointing jobs report could increase the likelihood of a 50 basis-point cut.
Markets Breakdown
Today’s session set up a trap early in the session right after today’s economical reports.
In our market report posted this morning (here), we provided warnings about the potential market weakness following Wednesday's rejection from the balance lows and the subsequent loss of momentum.
If you have been following us for a while, you have heard us explain why the market moves as it does around key economic reports and the expected swing highs and lows.
Watch this video we made for insights into this market activity.
Today was just one of those times when a series of economic reports this morning caused an initial swing higher, only to be immediately followed by rejection and another swing lower, breaking the 2-day lows exactly as anticipated.
The jobs report tomorrow will shape a complete emotional session.
When emotions are in control of the market, short term references don’t hold their weight. Exercise caution at 8:30am and manage risk.
ES
Some references we’ll be looking going forward:
Upside Levels: 5573/5604/5616/5637
Downside Levels: 5484/5464/5455/5431/5415
That’s all we got!
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