open this before trading this week
Happy Sunday traders.
We’re back with another big Sunday brief.
We’ve got an action packed week of events with GDP, PCE, and unemployment.
No time to waste, let’s jump right in…
Impact Snapshot
Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
Q4 GDP - Wednesday
Unemployment Claims - Thursday
PCE Inflation - Thursday
Manufacturing PMI - Friday
Market Evaluation
This week, S&P 500 index achieved a new record closing high with a 1.7% increase, driven by robust quarterly performances from Walmart, and NVIDIA which positively influenced investor confidence.
Nvidia shares ripped 15% higher last Thursday after earnings. The report sent the broader market ripping higher too.
Underlying US inflation rose in January by the most in a year, as tracked by the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, highlighting the long and bumpy path to taming price pressures.
Economic data next week will see Thursday taking central stage with core PCE inflation and Unemployment claims as the main focus as the week will also see several Fed Speakers.
Markets Breakdown
On our last Sunday report we’ve posted a week ago, we highlight the importance of paying attention and respecting the trend.
The key comment at the end of this post was this:
The trend is still to the upside and we haven’t seen clear selling aggression to indicate a reversal as of right now.
Last Friday’s close might have looked “bad” for those that look at intraday activity but if you understand where the market is sitting at higher time frames was it really bad?
So much about the markets have to do with who is participating in pullback moves and who isn’t, and as stated in our market reports, this did not look like big trading money initiating these pullbacks.
We can sit and talk about how weak the underlying structure of this market have been, how many gaps are left to fill and how it’s an AI frenzy bubble.
It is. But the first rule we always have to respect is “don’t fight trends”
Sometimes it’s better to be late in a major move rather than trying to pick the all-time high top. Again, you’ll know where the ATH is well after the fact.
Heading into the week ahead, the goal is to monitor for acceptance of new prices or the lack of.
Bulls want to build value and consolidate around Friday’s range which will further tighten the balance range and will be further indication of acceptance.
Bears want to eye a pullback towards the prior ATH at 5065 where buyers must defend.
ES
Key points of interest for next week.
Upside Levels: 5135/5151/5165
Downside Levels: 5087/5065/5041
That’s all we got for you in this one.
Like, comment, and share with 1 friend.
We’ll see you on Tuesday!
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading carries a significant level of risk and may lead to substantial financial losses. The content provided in this newsletter is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a trade recommendation or financial advice. It is essential for readers to independently assess and make their own investment decisions, taking into consideration their personal financial situation and risk tolerance.