read me before trading this week
Hey team.
Big Sunday report to get you up to speed before the week ahead.
FED rate decision/meeting on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday, so should be a fun week!
Let’s jump right in…
Impact Snapshot
FED Rate decision - Wednesday
Unemployment Claims - Thursday
Manufacturing/Service PMI - Thursday
Market Evaluation
The S&P500 index edged down 0.1% this week, its second consecutive weekly loss as investors digested higher-than-expected inflation readings for February.
CPI and PPI showed that neither consumer nor wholesale price growth is falling as fast as the Fed would like. All of this has the market rethinking the potential June cut.
The highlight of next week will be on the Federal Reserve as its policy-setting committee will have a two-day meeting that will conclude on Wednesday with an interest-rate decision.
Markets Breakdown
Precisely one week ago on last Sunday’s market report, we’ve highlighted the importance of paying attention for change in the market.
Last Friday’s excess high was the best we’ve seen in this upside trend for quite some weeks.
A good excess high is an indication that the market has gone high enough to find aggressive sellers and cut off buying. It’s simply one data point we’re using.
On last week’s open the market sold off and later made an attempt that failed to gain any meaningful upside continuation above that Friday’s excess high.
This lead to a pullback that touched the upside trend line that align with the 20EMA.
As visualized by the bar chart on the right, the market has been on a clear uptrend for weeks, bouncing off of the trend line and 20EMA.
Heading to next week we want to monitor if this pullback, combined with the clear 3/8 excess high from last Friday can signal a solid break down bellow the trend line which can lead into range extension to the downside.
There is no clear trend change without the support of volume. Bouncing off of this area, exactly how it happened on this uptrend several times now, keep the upside trend intact.
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Points of interest for next week
Upside Levels: 5212/5223/5243
Downside Levels: 5155/5145/5130
That’s all we got.
We’ll see you Tuesday!
-The QuantVue Team
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading carries a significant level of risk and may lead to substantial financial losses. The content provided in this newsletter is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a trade recommendation or financial advice. It is essential for readers to independently assess and make their own investment decisions, taking into consideration their personal financial situation and risk tolerance.