The Market Brief
Hey team. US futures rose during early trading on optimism over trade talks, recovering some ground after sharp losses in the previous session.
Let’s recap yesterday’s session and see what’s next!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 Unemployment Claims - 8:30am
Macro Viewpoint
US-China trade war escalation, Powell’s hawkish remarks. You don’t need anything more than that to tank an intraday session.
Risk-off in stocks yesterday amid US-China trade war escalation (245% tariff and chips curb) and Powell’s hawkish remarks later that afternoon. SPX fell to -3.3% at intraday low and rebounded more than 1% in the last 30 min during the cash trading session.
Chair Powell said that the tariff increases announced by the Trump administration were “significantly larger” than they expected and that tariffs were likely to slow growth and raise inflation.
Aggregated desk flows and overall market volumes continue to fall off a cliff, suggestive of mounting investor fatigue around trying to trade the continued back-and-forth trade headlines.
Wall St. Prime Intel
It’s that time of the month again. Get your fireworks ready, as today we’ve got OPEX with over $2.6 trillion of notional options exposure set to expire, including $1.2 trillion of SPX options and $480 billion notional of single stock options.
In today’s Wall St. Prime Intel we cover:
OPEX Expectations: What’s the implied move, and how are big clients positioned?
Hedge Fund Performance: Which types of HF strategies are underwater YTD, and which are outperforming in these historic conditions?
This is a free edition of the Market Brief. To receive our additional in-depth research and data analysis, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Develop better context and create a robust entry model by understanding all the market nuances we share on a daily basis. This will help you build the market understanding that most traders lack.