The Market Brief
US stock futures edged lower on Tuesday as major retailers begin reporting earnings, shifting attention to the health of American consumers while markets linger close to record levels.
Macro Viewpoint
This week, focus should remain on macro developments, as key data releases could see global central bank policy expectations evolve.
There’s still scope for growth to surprise on the upside, as investors are clearly nervous after the recent US jobs report.
Inflation is the key challenge right now. Last week saw the strongest monthly US PPI print since 2022, and core CPI was the fastest in six months as well.
We also know that the tariff impact hasn’t fully shown up yet, as several only came in on August 7, and there’s more in the pipeline ahead. Yet even on inflation, some of the risk is already priced in, so a downside surprise would offer further support for risk assets.
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