The Market Brief
U.S. stock index futures near flat on Friday as investors stuck to the sidelines ahead of a crucial inflation print, while assessing the fragility of the Middle East truce.
Impact Snapshot
🟥 CPI Inflation - 8:30am
🟥 Consumer Sentiment - 10:00am
Macro Viewpoint
A two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran has put Wall Street indexes on track for meaningful weekly gains.
The S&P 500 is set for its largest weekly advance since November, while the Dow is poised for its sharpest weekly gain since June, as risk sentiment recovered sharply across equity markets.
March CPI data is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET and will be in the spotlight. The reading is expected to show the impact of elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict, giving markets an early look at how geopolitical disruption is feeding through to the broader U.S. economy.
Prime Intelligence
The S&P 500 has now closed higher for seven consecutive sessions.
Examining comparable streaks over the past decade, near-term forward returns were modestly positive on average. The picture improves considerably at longer horizons. At the six-month mark, the S&P was higher 81.25% of the time, with an average return of 5.67% and a median of 5.05%.
The Market Brief
The recent rally across global equities was not a surprise to our subscribers. The positioning asymmetry that set it up was in place before any headline broke, and we flagged the skew to the upside as early as Monday.
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