Hey team. U.S. futures edged lower as optimism around tariff cuts between the US and China gave way to lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth.
Let’s see what’s ahead for the markets!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 CPI Inflation - 8:30am
Macro Viewpoint
CPI Preview
After a research across Wall Street’s biggest investment banks and their forecasts, we expect tariffs to begin creeping into the CPI in this week’s release.
We see expectations point to a 0.32% rise in the consumer price index (CPI) for April—a firmer print compared to the last couple of months, though still softer than what we saw in December and January.
That said, we believe April marks the beginning of a series of CPI readings that will reflect the impact of recent tariff hikes. These pressures are likely to feed through gradually, particularly across categories tied to imported goods.
Should April's projection prove accurate, the year-on-year increase in headline CPI would remain at 2.4%. However, we anticipate a more pronounced pickup in inflation over the next few quarters before the influence of the tariffs begins to taper off.
That said, uncertainty about how much tariffs might have impacted last month’s readings is elevated, and we see scope for more volatility within the April CPI report than is typical.
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