The Market Brief
U.S. futures are trading higher this morning as investors digest another surge in AI-related spending from the tech mega caps, while the Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected.
Impact Snapshot
🟥 Unemployment Claims - 8:30am
Key Earnings after close: AAPL 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑
Macro Viewpoint
US stocks resumed their advance as technology megacaps unleashed further spending to build out the infrastructure that powers artificial intelligence.
The Fed, as expected, left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75% at its January meeting. The statement characterized economic growth as "solid," noted that the unemployment rate had "stabilized at a low level," and removed previous references to rising downside risks to the labor market.
7000
The context below is what we shared at the start of the year with our subscribers to reiterate our long-term bullish outlook for the market, one we have consistently expressed since Sept 2025.
While we flagged multiple short-term risks along the way that required hedging long-term holdings, we consistently held the view that the rally was delayed, not derailed.
Confidence stems from being data dependent instead of letting emotions drive decision making. Every piece of content in this Substack comes with the data to back it up. We couldn’t care less about what some talking suit on a CNBC panel was “worried” about. Well, guess what?
The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
The Market Brief
Despite positive overnight semis earnings, the S&P failed to hold above the 7,000 level after briefly breaching it yesterday, partially a product of the dealer gamma pocket we’ve been discussing with subscribers.
In today’s brief, we highlight what it will take to break through that level, what the current structure looks like, and whether there is more capacity for the market to move higher.👇
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