The Market Brief

U.S. futures near flat, pausing after a recent rally early in the ON session as investor focus shifted to the annual central bank conference at Jackson Hole and geopolitical news.

Macro Viewpoint

Last week, US stocks saw modest gains and marked new ATHs, as investor focus shifted from micro to macro with earnings season winding down.

Traders are also staying cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole later this week, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech keenly watched for guidance on a September interest-rate cut.

SPX daily implied moves

Index option prices have dropped significantly over the past two weeks as investors seem to anticipate the low-volume and low-news-flow period of the summer.

Over the next month, the vol market is telling us the five most important events are: i) NVDA earnings, ii) FOMC, iii) NFP, iv) CPI, and v) Jackson Hole.

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