The Market Brief
Hey team, futures dipped during the overnight as trade war jitters continue to weigh on sentiment, with traders now looking ahead to Powell's comments later today.
Let’s re-cap Monday’s session and see what’s next for the markets!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 Fed Chair Powell Testifies - 10:00am
Macro Viewpoint
Stocks faced challenges during early trading as recent tariff news prompted caution among traders, who are also awaiting testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key US inflation data.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump's election, economists have revised their inflation forecasts, driven by concerns that his policies, especially those related to tariffs, might reignite price pressures in the economy.
Following a cumulative 100 basis-point rate cut between September and December, Fed officials, including Powell, have indicated that they are "not in a hurry" to reduce rates further.
On Tuesday, the European Union stated that it would respond to any tariffs the U.S. might impose, intensifying the risk of a transatlantic trade dispute.
Prior Session Deep Dive
In our last article, we talked about building trading intuition by repeatedly memorising the same exact market nuances until they become second nature, allowing you to be prepared beforehand and actively focus on market momentum instead.
Monday’s session followed the exact same concepts we’ve been highlighting for years, and their answers are also included in the eBook we provide for the Paid Substack.
Where is price relatively to prior session value?
Who is likely trading during the overnight session off of headlines?
What happens if the market get’s too short or too long?
Does the market lack key economical catalysts for the session?
What happens if U.S. opens in the midpoint of the prior session’s value?
Are we inside a balance range and what is required to breakout from it?
We don’t constantly toss in a bunch of new things and say, “Yep, this was the reason we recovered, and then we saw a chop, which was something we haven’t talked about, and by the way, you should know about it now.” That just described 99% of the larps on social media who start drawing a bunch of lines and rectangles on the screen a day after the fact.
What we do here is not for everyone. Most people who enter this field just want a big fat buy-and-sell button and to know exactly when to press it.
To be proficient in anything, including sports or art, you need to hone your skills and intuition.
Trading involves a mix of skills, including quick decision-making, emotional control, and the ability to analyse the markets efficiently.
Our Paid Substack is focused exclusively on helping you develop your market analysis skills, so no matter what trading strategy you use, you can rely on your honed intuition as a supportive decision-making tool and have the odds in your favor rather than against you.
If we can identify what the market is likely trying to do at 6:00 AM ET—when none of these candlesticks could have possibly existed on the chart at the time of the post—you can do it too.
