The Market Brief
Hey team. Following three straight sessions of gains on Wall Street, U.S. stock futures edged lower as investors weighed mixed tech earnings and uncertainty surrounding trade talks.
Let’s take a quick look back at the last session and what could be on the radar moving forward!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 Consumer Sentiment - 10:00am ET
Macro Viewpoint
Yesterday saw another round of green shoots across tech, as better earnings, a relaxed Vol backdrop (VIX below 27), a stable rates backdrop (10yr -7bps to 4.3%), and cleaner positioning gave way to a healthy market rally.
Flows have been two-way through the pipes, including small upside selling and downside hedges being rolled up.
Beyond the noise
Most of the TikTok and YouTube LARPs you see on the web will tell you it was their bullish signal from X indicator flipping to Y, so we went higher yesterday.
CNBC talking suits will tell you all that activity happened because of the most recent tariff headline or fundamental reason that is currently trending.
The amount of delusional and complete nonsense information out there, with people having zero sense of how financial markets work on a broader level—let alone behind the scenes—can completely distort your vision and ability to read what the market is doing.
We went higher because of X headline.
My strategy showed a buy at this level, therefore we went higher.
Ask 100 different “analysts” and you will likely get 100 different answers.
Backed by data
On the institutional level, about 0.1% of trades are performed by humans. If a trade is not backed by a significant amount of data—reducing the reliance on subjective judgment—they would never execute it.
We like to take the same approach in our market brief and back all our claims as to why we turn bullish or bearish on any particular scenario and time horizon—before any candlesticks and “momentum strategies” could have ever existed—with actual data
What data?
The following are just three of the data points we were looking at days before the fact, and we warned our Subscribers about them yesterday as well. [Here]:
The VIX and put-call skew were expected to decline significantly from current levels. Removal of put hedges leads to direct and indirect equity buying.
Flat tape: We saw $30.50B of global equity demand ($3.83B into the US) this week.
CTA estimates showed we had largely bottomed out, and skew existed to the upside—with sustained rallies expected to extend demand.
Do we expect continuation? Does the market have more room to go? Is that it? 👇
If you want access to our updated market outlook—built for traders who think beyond retail approaches—consider becoming a paid subscriber. We focus on tracking the biggest players in the market to build a clear, data-driven view of sentiment across multiple time horizons.
Develop better context and create a robust entry model by understanding all the market nuances we share on a daily basis. This will help you build the market understanding that most traders lack.