The Market Brief
U.S. futures lower during early trading as concerns over a U.S. government shutdown clouded the release of data seen as crucial for determining the path of Federal Reserve interest-rates.
Impact Snapshot
🟥 JOLTS Job Openings - 10:00am
🟥 Consumer Confidence - 10:00am
🟥 President Trump Speaks - 11:00am
Macro Viewpoint
Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate-cutting decisions, the risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed due to a government shutdown adds to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy.
If the shutdown happens, we likely will not get September’s employment report as scheduled at 8:30 a.m. on 10/3, and prediction markets put roughly an 80% probability on this occurring.
However, over the past several years, there have been multiple near-misses in which the odds of a shutdown appeared very high just before the deadline, but a last-minute deal was reached.
Prime Intelligence
CTAs’ overall equity long positioning rose last week, driven by a broad-based increase in positioning across regions. These longs have steadily increased over the last month on continued declines in realized volatility and have now become stretched on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
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