The Market Brief
Hey team, U.S. futures edged lower during early trading and are currently staging a recovery attempt, as the global rally in equities stalled and investors scaled back their expectations of quick progress in the U.S.-China tariff dispute.
Let’s re-cap the last session and see what’s next!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 Unemployment Claims - 8:30am
Key Earnings: GOOGL 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ PG 0.00%↑
Macro Viewpoint
U.S. futures fell after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on a timely resolution to the trade war, while Beijing said the two sides aren’t in talks.
Trump’s rhetoric surrounding both China and Powell seemed like an intentional effort to ease market jitters.
Market Construction
Households own over a third of the US equity market – this is not small. Retail is typically slower to the chase than the robots. Investors have almost taken for granted that retail will swoop in to “buy the dip.” So far, they have.
Wall St. Prime Intel
CTAs are often portrayed as the bogeyman in the financial markets. Their rule-based, systematic trading strategies are frequently blamed for triggering market sell-offs. They employ the most sophisticated models and strategies that exist.
By studying their behavioural patterns and allocations, we develop a better market understanding of what the serious market participants are doing.
The aggregate selling from systematics has been huge. The question is whether they front ran the SPX move lower, discounting a bigger bear than realized.
In our Market Briefs, we’re studying their positioning and latest evidential modeling as reported by Wall Street’s biggest banks on a daily basis in order to develop a data-based opinion instead of blaming the latest “headline” to describe market activity. 👇
In today’s Brief we cover
Do we see change to systematic pressure?
Market dynamics
Near-term expectations
Key CTA levels to watch that will force allocations
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