price blindness vs context
Hey team.
On Thursday’s Substack we’ve projected insights of what to look for. Let’s see how Friday’s session followed up and see whats next for this week!
Impact Snapshot
Jerome Powell Speech - Monday
Retail Sales - Tuesday
Unemployment Claims - Thursday
Key Earnings: GS 0.00%↑ BAC 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑
Market Evaluation
The S&P 500 index climbed 0.9% this week, hovering near record highs, despite mixed signals from inflation data and bank earnings.
This week's inflation data revealed that U.S. consumer prices fell as predicted last month, while June's producer prices increased more than anticipated.
The June CPI reading showed that prices fell for the first time since 2020, dropping 0.1% from May.
On a core basis, prices may not have fallen, but they still grew more slowly than expected, marking the smallest uptick since August 2021.
These cooler-than-expected CPI numbers pushed the likelihood of a September rate cut higher, with markets now predicting an 84% chance.
Markets Breakdown
On our last Substack we’ve given insights of what our expectations were ahead of Thursday’s sell off.
It was probably one of the most nuanced reports we’ve published that made a clear distinguishing point between sell-off that is triggered by market participants getting off the market and participants rotating capital to manage risk on different sectors.
Although asset management and portfolio rebalancing are concepts that are targeted around investing, having a good understanding of why something happens and how to spot it is very crucial for day-traders.
Most people focus exclusively on price, missing out on context and get caught up. What followed up was a session that was fuelled by short covering all the way towards a new all time high.
Read this report below for clues we’ve shared 1 day before the fact and the warnings we’ve projected.👇
ES
With the market seeing another rejection off of 5700s our main focus will be rotational activity and overlapping value areas as the market will potentially seek to balance itself.
Some references we’ll be looking going forward:
Upside Levels: 5697/5715/5728
Downside Levels: 5645/5626/5615
That’s all we got!
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Oh… here’s some incredible QuantVue Pro Member results from this week:
We’ll see you again on the next one!
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