The Market Brief
Hey team. Futures slid early Thursday as anxiety took over again, with worries mounting that the trade war could have some serious, lasting effects on the U.S. economy.
Let’s re-cap yesterday’s session and see what’s next!
Impact Snapshot
🟥 CPI Inflation - 8:30am
🟥 Unemployment Claims - 8:30am
Macro Viewpoint
That’s all it took folks.
A headline we shared as a possibility on Monday, which then became a rumor, which then became fake news, and yesterday became reality, was all it took to make another historic day and send:
S&P 500 to its third biggest gain in post-WWII history
Nasdaq to its 2nd largest gain in history.
The Dow gone up +3,000 points for the first time in history.
Most shares traded in the history of the stock market.
The President paused the higher reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days on all countries aside from China (the cumulative tariff on China is being increased to 125%, effective immediately). The 10% blanket tariff remains in effect for everyone.
You might be under the assumption we’re out of the woods—not just yet. Going forward, we expect a boost to monthly inflation from the escalation in tariff policy.
The 90-day delay has eased rising market stress and leaves a hot print less of a potential negative catalyst—though it would reinforce the challenge facing the Fed of downside risks to growth alongside upside risks to inflation.
Despite the latest relief, policy uncertainty and recession risk remain elevated, and tariffs are higher and broader.
