Peak
Hey team. The S&P 500 index rose 3.4% last week to new highs on the back of trade framework negotiations and geopolitical de-escalation.
In today’s report, we share what we were looking at weeks before the fact, what the current market environment looks like positioning-wise, and what our expectations are moving forward.
Impact Snapshot
Fed Chair Powell Speech - Tuesday
ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday
JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday
ADP Payrolls - Wednesday
U.S. Jobs Report - Thursday
Independence Day - Friday (Stocks Closed)
Macro Viewpoint
The S&P 500 had its first record close since February (+3.4% on the week) thanks to rapidly improving macro backdrop and continued enthusiasm around AI.
Post the geopolitical tensions with Iran last week, the vol market has reset lower. Vol panic index, now sits at one of the lowest levels YTD.
Next week will be an abbreviated trading week, with the US stock market closing several hours early Thursday and remaining closed on Friday for Independence Day.
However, investors will be watching closely on Thursday as the Labor Department releases its June employment report.
Wall St. Prime Intelligence
The whole point of trading price action is spotting trends early and riding them. One of the best quotes we’ve ever shared with subscribers—back in May 14—still highlighted what was to come and remains as accurate as it gets.
After calling the absolute bottom at 4800, when we saw institutional clients scale back into the markets in April, we’ve given a bullish bias days later, which has remained and been reiterated throughout the history of this entire upside, for weeks—based on quantified data from investment banks suggesting that the risk was skewed to the upside.
📰 In today’s market brief we cover:
Institutional positioning (asset managers + lev funds) vs Systematic strategies
Positioning updates: Is the rally overextended or underweight?
Has our bull case, which has remained intact since 4800, changed?
What are potential market headwinds ahead?
Technical analysis and key references to watch
We cover all the above and much more in today’s brief👇
This is a free edition of the Market Brief. To receive our additional institutional-grade research, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.
